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The mainstream media are doing their best to skew the debate and misrepresent in the lead up to the 2013 Federal election, says Matthew N. Donovan.
The worst example of Murdoch’s blatant disregard for balanced journalism.
LIKE MANY people, I am constantly frustrated and let down by the way the mainstream media misrepresents the current Australian political landscape.
It’s not a matter of the reporting being against my political allegiance, given that I am a Labor supporter*, it’s a matter of bias.
I just want news to be news — not entertainment and manipulation.
When I was trained in journalism at the University of Southern Queensland, I was taught the role of the fourth estate was to present the facts in an even-handed, unemotional way, with little colourful language so as not to lead my audience to be predisposed to a certain side of the story.
The media is failing this test and failing badly. Any objective assessment would show that papers like The Australian are eager to present stories in the worst possible light for the Government, seeking to twist facts and change the discussion when it gets awkward for the Coalition. They seemingly want to present the Coalition as being the shoe-in.
In opinion pieces? Go for it. In articles? No opinion, other than the direct quotes of interviewed talent.
Murdoch doesn’t seem to agree, but these are simple journalistic principles that have gone out the window in our media. Rather than seeing news as a public service and being responsible with his power in our society, he sees news as a way to exert influence. You only need to look at the scourge of Fox News and that becomes crystal clear.
Well, the facts are starting to enter the discussion and no amount of screaming from the front pages can change them — Tony Abbott and the Coalition have major issues.
The polls tightened for Labor after their Western Sydney week. (Image: Newspoll.)
This will be tough contest for the Coalition and there are reinvigorated signs of momentum for Labor in the Newspoll released earlier this week.
I get angry when I see simplistic assessments of how the polls look for Labor. I am all for reality and facing facts but many of the predictions of seat gains and losses are just plain lazy. For example, you can’t just take the national average swing as projected in a poll and apply it equally in each and every state. It doesn’t work like that.
Each state has their own level of ALP recovery. A 5 per cent swing in SA would mean nothing to Labor (in terms of loss of seats) but the same result in NSW would be a disaster.
The recent quarterly state based federal voting intentions had Labor climbing to 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 52 per cent. The next is due any week now.
There was an impressive jump in primary vote in New South Wales of 4 per cent to 48 per cent, up 2 per cent in Victoria to 54 per cent, unchanged in Queensland at 42 per cent, up 2 per cent to 50 per cent in South Australia and up 3 per cent in Western Australia to 45 per cent.
The Coalition have been on a downward trend since mid last year.
If you assume state-wide uniform swings and apply the headline numbers across the country it would lead to the loss of 7 seats for Labor (Corangamite, Greenway, La Trobe, Robertson, Lindsay, Moreton and Petrie) and 1 gain (Hasluck). A net loss of 6 seats to 65 seats.
Another national Newspoll released on Tuesday indicates numbers in line with the last quarterly state based poll, and a much needed increase of a further 3 per cent for Labor on two party preferred basis to 48 per cent against 52 per cent for the LNP.
If the individual state specific results were applied in the same way, it would lead to the gain of 2 seats (Hasluck and Canning) and the loss of 1 seat (Corangamite). A net gain of 1 seat and an improvement of 6 seats since the last Newspoll. Polls go up and polls go down but if we’re going to analyse the landscape, let’s do it properly.
A trap many easily fall into is projecting an outcome based on a poll today for an election that is months away. Trends and momentum play a part as well as proximity to an election. The closer the election gets, the more attention electors pay and the more accurate polls are likely to be.
This battle will be won in seats like Brisbane (QLD), Longman (QLD), Dawson (QLD), Forde (QLD), Fisher QLD), Dickson (QLD), Boothby (SA), Hasluck (WA), Canning (WA), Swan (WA) and Macquarie (NSW). Labor needs to gain a majority of these seats without the loss of anything unpredicted.
State based polling is showing a bounce in NSW and that needs to continue with a comfortable buffer zone being created above 2010′s 48.84 per cent vote. Western Sydney must be targeted heavily and the recent foray by the Gillard Government into Penrith seems to have yielded a bounce in the most recent poll.
A very strong Queensland result is the key to Labor maintaining government and big moves are being indicated in state polling against Newman’s cuts. They need to start to pass through to Federal voting intentions and my prediction is they will.
State polls are showing the crucial state of Queensland will be a headache for Abbott.
Targeted seat campaigns in Boothby and Macquarie are also needed to give certainty should the swing be uneven in some states. Western Australia is looking at being on trend to pick up 1, 2 or even 3 seats, given the blow out swing against Labor in 2010 in the state and current trends and momentum.
My prediction is the growing discontent in Victoria, New South Wales and, especially, Queensland with the actions of their governments will play a major part in a continued polling recovery for Labor and the election campaign proper.
This is not a foregone conclusion and with polls confirming a tightening, it will pay for mainstream media to admit this is a contest.
Labor and Julia Gillard is well and truly in this in terms of preferred PM and approval, regaining the lead over Tony Abbott.
It’s going to be one hell of an election year.
Note on methodology: Poll numbers have been rounded to nearest 1 per cent, which does not impact the outcome.
(* Editor’s note: Matthew Donovan is Independent Australia’s part-time sub-editor and a former Labor Party state candidate in Queensland. He is no relation to managing editor David Donovan or his brother Matthew J. Donovan — a former South Australian Liberal Party candidate.)
40 Comments
No body mentions the seats of Solomon in the Northern Territory, currently Liberal, or Lingiari, currently Labor.
Last years NT election results would indicate that Lingiari is under some pressure, come September.
But, Solomon, based largely on the Greater Darwin urban area stayed with Labor in the last NT election. The LNP party led by the recently deposed Terry Mills won Government by winning the bush electorates; much to most peoples surprise.
Voters in Solomon are non too pleased with the manner in which the LNP has performed since gaining Government. Paul Henderson, former Chief Minister, stood down and Labor’s candidate polled nearly three quarters of the primary vote at the recent by-election to fill his seat. If that attitude infects other voters in Solomon, come September, the seat will change.
By the way, how terrible is it, that we know the date of the election now? Four year fixed term elections have a lot going for them, in my view.
Commentators have claimed that Lingiari is in play. But that was before this weeks chopping (literally) and changing by Liberal MLAs from Territory electorates within the Federal Seat. Incumbency, and his known performance will favour the current Labor MHR now.
Because of the current turmoil within the Territory’s conservative party, both Territory seats include themselves on any must watch list.
And, a personal message to players within the mainstream media, the more you treat me as an idiot, the more I reject your message; even when facts lie within it.
Your problem is, you do not know, should you care, how many there are like me.
Thank you for your sensible reporting, Matthew. It would be such a pity were Labor not returned to the government. Fair enough they have made mistakes, but which goverment has not? Overall they have performed exceptionally well. I admire the prime minister for her courageous stand against the unrelenting smears and lies from the LNP and the Murdochracy. Tony Abbott can not win or we’d be back in the dark ages and working for $2.00 an hour according to Gina’s demand, no matter Tony’s assurances (and who can believe those anyway?) that the workers will be better off under his government. Let’s not be fooled and chose for our wellbeing as a nation. Labor certainly works to give us a better life.
The only thing we can learn from these polls is that the Coalition’s primary vote is essentially unchanged from the 2010 election. Due to a 50% increase in “others” since the election, wholly at the expense of Labour and Greens, there is a real problem: the algorithm for allocating preferences in polls may not be appropriate under these conditions.
I actually saw someone reading the Australian the other day, elderly white dude on the train, and yes his lips moved as he eagerly read the pearls of wisdom before his baffled, lifeless eyes.
” BedfordD
16 March, 2013 at 1:41 am
And, a personal message to players within the mainstream media, the more you treat me as an idiot, the more I reject your message; even when facts lie within it.
Your problem is, you do not know, should you care, how many there are like me.”
I think there are far more than you might think and I reckon Fairfax are destroying their brand and it’s only a matter of time before The Oz is laid to rest.
With Abbotts jump in the polls prior to the last correction, I get the distinct impression that manipulation of them is a real possibility at times.
I would put nothing past Murdoch in his efforts to get the government that HE wants, and that’s Abbott.
I wrote about these things in “Abbott? when there’s no barge pole, an opinion poll will do.”
http://truthseekersmusings.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/abbott-when-theres-no-barge-pole-an-opinion-poll-will-do/
Cheers
I’ve often thought that the Murdoch newspapers, especially the tabloids, are serving as the propaganda arm of News Limited / News Corporation in their campaign to bring about a political environment friendly to their commercial interests. After all, newspapers don’t make that much money these days and the Australian has been a loss maker for years. As we get closer to the election, I expect the attacks on the Government and Labor to become even more virulent and hysterical, providing useful free political advertising for the Coalition. Even the ubiquitous posters for the Daily Telegraph (in Sydney, and other tabloids in other cities) would help.
Of course running a stable of dying newspapers costs money, but it must be a small price to pay for an organisation that wants to control as much of Australia’s news, communications and entertainment media as it can get its hands on.
After all these years, how could anyone be surprised at the extreme bias of Murdoch’s media? The logic of his position as an oligarch dictates that he must be bitterly opposed to even the most anaemic social-democratic programme and when you add to that his potential loss of revenue due to the National Broadband network, you have the reasons for the hysterics we are now witnessing.
Utterly unacceptable, however, are the current low cultural standards and right-wing bias of the ABC, last night’s “Ar-Renn Drive” being a case in point. In a segment called, I think, ‘Question Time’, there was a noisy jumble of snatches of Federal Parliament’s question time, what sounded like football songs, comments from a studio panel and phoned in comments from a couple of individuals. The compere excelled himself with superficial, smart-alec talk. It all sounded like something which could have been cobbled together by a group of adolescent pranksters.
Here is the make up of the studio panel (and my apologies for any mis-spelled names):
Joe Hildebrand – Daily Telegraph (right-wing Murdoch paper)
Chris Berg – Institute of Public Affairs (far right-wing ‘think tank’ which refuses to reveal its sources of funding).
Jacqueline Mailey – Sydney Morning Herald (now effectively the Rinehart media, although I don’t know Ms Mailey’s personal political leanings).
The two who commented by phone:
Michael Croger – Liberal Party eminence
Peter van Onselen – right-wing commentator.
There you have it: four participants representing the right, one from a now right-wing paper, none from the left or centre-left. But even without the political loading, this would still have been trashy broadcasting. The top echelons of the ABC must take responsibility for this travesty of national public broadcasting.
Could some of the lawyers out there tell us whether there are any legal avenues available to us to force the ABC to return to its mandated role and former cultural standards as respected, independent, national public broadcaster? Meanwhile, would IA consider starting a petition for the removal of the current managing director who is presiding over this state of affairs?
Mathew, thank you for the article. Like Bedford D and Oscar Jones I will not be taken for a fool by NewsLtd or by Fairfax. The Age had been my paper of choice since arriving in Australia in 1974 – never did like the Australian or the Herald Sun. Bought The Age every day even when interstate but have bought only one or two copies since 2011. I glance through it in the cafe (for free) when I go for a swim but mainly to do the sudoku puzzles because the news content is so blatantly biased I just get angry and that’s not good for my blood pressure. There is a very good post on The New Matilda (yesterday, I think) that gives all the facts on just how well the Australian economy is doing on the global stage so why should I bother with Ross Gittins and Alan Kohler’s purile offerings.
Article on New Matilda is ‘Could you be Treasurer – Take our quiz’. One of these days I will learn how to get the desired links into my offerings so you just need to click on. How do you do that?
This may be off topic for some but I just have to vent!!
On ABC on-line today, Abbott is on about a “new engagement” with the Aboriginal community via a re-vamp of that Dept. How hypocritical can you get! This man was recently shown previously sleeping through presentations made by 2 Aboriginal women who had traveled very long distances to have their say.
When will the majority realise that he is a reptilian creep…sorry, I’ve just been offensive to snakes.
How are these polls conducted? I don’t know a single person who has ever been contacted by one of these pollsters.
Evidently, they would also be so easy to manipulate by targeting people in certain geographic/demographics. Is there any scrutiny of the methodology employed by the various pollsters? Why do their results vary so so widely all the time?
Apart from manipulation of public opinion by the MSM, I fail to see any value for the 2-3 polls that get released every single week? A government’s decisions are popular or unpopular today, what does it matter? The only time it makes any difference is on polling day.
SMH has today an article warning of growing middle-class drug addiction and another explaining how middle-class drug use is more acceptable now.
Does this newspaper, or whatever multimedia entity it has become, actually have an editor?
Chuzzlenut
It was top news on ABC 24.
I felt sick when I saw that horrible abbott with the Aborigines.
Just proves he is two faced.
All commenters have said it all for me, I applaud you!
One thing I would say about the polls I believe most to be push polling. why else is there a preferred leaders ? Gillard /Rudd
Abbott/Turnbull, when it is not a fact that of the matter either position is up for “grabs” at the response by the polled? and we don’t elect a leader?. (thank the lord and bless the baby Jesus for that small mercy and that we do not have the the richest man wins the presidency. YET! The MSM/Murdochracy are doing their best to disenfranchise all but the Murdochracy supporter.
The Labor party may be in trouble according to the mainstream media, bur will never die. However If Abbott and his Liberals win the next election, I predict that he like Baillieu, will not last a full term.
brusselsprouts,
Go to the site you wish to link to and right click the address bar(top left side of screen). From the drop down menu click “copy”. Then go to where you wish to comment and when you are ready to insert the link right click and from the drop down menu click “paste”. As simple as that.
What hope have we got? If Abbott gets in he will be there for 25 years with the help of the MSM!! He will take us back to the dim dark ages, I am thinking of leaving the country!!The Labor Party wont have a voice at all if they are in Opposition, we wont even know what they think about policy etc, no one will be interested! God help us all.
The best way to deal with the ABC is to make a complaint every time you see something that is biased.
Do it on the Internet through contact us & ask for a reply.
If everyone keeps on hammering them maybe they’ll be forced to change .
It’s your ABC , keep up the pressure.
If Labor is dead, I didn’t see the funeral notices.
All the while I’ve got my vote, they will never be dead.
Gotta say though, unless Julia gets out and takes the bastards head on, {because she out performs Abbott and his mangy lot ANYTIME]
we might see them in the casualty ward
Thanks you’ve all said it for me.
One can only hope the bias will backfire, Fairfax readers are continually complaining of bias, I’m one of them.
I was going to stop reading, but decided there needs to be another voice of dissent.
And it’s often not what they report on, it’s what they don’t and the angle. The way their own polls are worded is a classic example.
I don’t think it’s over for Labor, not by a long shot but they have to get their word out and quickly. Abbott doesn’t need to say anything just pose in his fluoros with the family.
We cannot afford to have him running the show. That the disenfranchised, the pensioners, working class would even consider voting for his team is the severest case of masochism I’ve ever witnessed.
Murdoch, Fairfax and the ABC need to be outed to the masses.
hopefully after the next election Abbott can put some of his flouro visi vests to work in a new career.
Preferable in Gina’s mines on $2 a day ,evil little scumbag
Cant tell you all how much it gladdens my heart to read all your blogs, that are everything that I think & believe.It really helps when all else seems hopeless! Thankyou one & all !!
@Jgracchus “Could some of the lawyers out there tell us whether there are any legal avenues available to us to force the ABC to return to its mandated role and former cultural standards as respected, independent, national public broadcaster? Meanwhile, would IA consider starting a petition for the removal of the current managing director who is presiding over this state of affairs?”
I have also wondered about the legality of what is happening in the ABC. Why not a peoples class action against the ABC director and board for gross, ongoing breaches of the ABC charter and breach of trust of the Australian public whose taxes fund what has become a Goebbels propaganda lookalike?
brusselsprouts @ 8:48 AM wrote: “One of these days I will learn how to get the desired links into my offerings so you just need to click on. How do you do that?”
This page at the W3Schools website shows how it’s done. Click on the “Try it yourself” button to get the hang of it.
Good quiz, by the way: Could You Be Treasurer? I only got 6/12.
Aargh! IA mustn’t like ASP pages. Go to the W3Schools homepage and type “a href” in the Google Custom Search box.
Sorry ’bout that.
Thank you for a sensible and balanced view. There has been even more nonsense since last weekend, ostensibly based on the WA election results.
While headlines have screamed of ‘crushing’ etc, the swing Labor to Liberal was a little over 2% and it was the 4%+ swing from Greens to Liberal that caused most damage. I can’t fathom that one! I do know of one previously Green voter who voted Liberal because his business gets work from mining companies and I guess there may be lots more whose idealism gave way to pragmatism. I know rusted-on Greens voters who voted Labor because of C.Milne’s recent speeches, because they think anything denigrating Labor puts us in danger of Tony Abbott. I’m baffled as to why ex-Greens would vote Liberal though!
There’s no doubt Federal politics does play a part in voting at State elections but the Liberal alliance here is very different from the LNP in the Eastern states.
A major point of difference between LNP and the Greens federally is the attitude to carbon pricing. This wasn’t so much an issue between the two biggest WA parties as both leaders were against the carbon ‘tax’ and it’s not a state law that can be changed. Colin Barnett does believe in mitigating climate change and Tony Abbott’s lack of convincing action might make WA Greens vote very differently.
Colin Barnett is very different from Tony Abbott and quite widely respected by people from all parties; he doesn’t play personality politics, speaks with dignity and is across all the details, whatever the subject. He differs widely from Tony Abbott on specifics such as borrowing to build infrastructure, rather than chasing surplus. I’ve not spoken to anyone who believes Tony Abbott is fit to be Prime Minister.
I do think that WA results are mainly based on WA issues and in turn the outcome in each seat can be explained (so far as we can ever tell) by factors specific to the electorate – look at the variance of the swings to see this.
Just on some individual results – Adele Carles in Fremantle, albeit standing as an Independent, would have attracted some Greens votes away from high profile Greens candidate, Andrew Sullivan. However when she won the seat as a Green in the first place, it was on the back of active crusades against some major developments locals didn’t want, which won her a traditionally Labor seat. While much has been written about a possible ‘gentrification’ leading to a possible Liberal seat, this gentrification is far from recent anyway.
Evidence of the Barnett government’s work realising major projects is everywhere and the advertising of those started a long time ago, so it’s no surprise that a Liberal City Councillor with a massive advertising budget to add to what felt like saturation Liberal TV ads won the Perth seat.
I don’t know how much can be extrapolated to a Federal level 6 months away – not much I suspect. Less than a week from his re-election, Barnett has said that reduction of GST means less money for health and Education. While this might translate to anger at the Federal government, in a state planning to spend a billion on a football stadium even my football fan friends think excessive, this might not happen.
By the way among other silliness, I’ve seen claims that Liberals and Greens preferenced one another in Fremantle – it’s not true; Greens and Labor HTV cards were almost identical.
Dear Overhead and Mr Eyesore – thank you. Will store those gems and try them out next time.
Brusselsprouts, don’t know if this helps but its the way I do it.
If you are using internet explorer, if you look to the very top of THIS page you should see
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/news-of-labors-death-has-been-severely-exaggerated/#commentspost.
Left mouse click at the end of it and drag your mouse left to the start,e.g http
It should then be highlighted.
copy the highlighted bit to notepad.
bung it in wherever you want then.
It works for me
good luck
The media holds hands with executive and institution power in this country. Politics has little to do with it other than attending to little more than neighbourhood fence fights. Executive power runs this country above politics. Vote all you want, discontent and privilege aren’t going to lessen. The misbalance will crash before greed lets go. Always has, always will.The only thing that stops it is more oppression on the lower, the only system mechanics tyrant’s know.
OK, can someone explain to me how the ALP have become good at some progressive policies and plans like the BER and HIP, the NBN and others but are harsher and more right wing than Howard when it comes to social issues like single parents being kicked onto lower incomes, refugees being now jailed for life under a law that Gillard once opposed but now loves, the refusal to raise the dole and then the abuse of those who can’t afford to even get to interviews?
The continued abuse of aborigines under the racist intervention made worse, money laundering of benefits where it costs $220,000 to administer one families $30,000 a year benefits and why it is only done to aborigines by force?
She is like Maggie Thatcher on these issues while her ministers push her towards more progressive infrastructure.
I dread liberal governments always because they are regressive and don’t build things, but the ALP are now no different.
MarilynS.
I have been a member of {numerous times until I bailed out over policy} or supporter of Labor for over 50 years.
Labor has faults, but any Labor Government is better than a LNP one.
I don’t need to tell you of the benefits of Labor,
But I totally oppose the proposition that there is no difference.
My old man told me as a kid
” never run up stairs, never vote Liberal”.
I’ve stuck to that
It’s wrong to say there’s no or negligible difference between the parties. “They’re as bad as each other” is the bland free pass the moral relativists in the media use to excuse the Liberals for bad behaviour. It’s rubbish.
Cornlegend
Yes I agree with you, its easy to say Labor & Libs are alike, but they really are poles apart.Its easy to hide ones head in the sand, but I know which party I will be putting my money on & it wont be the Libs, they are morally bankrupt!! I would never vote for the Conservatives, because that is just what they are, they never do ANYTHING! At least Labor HAVE A GO, & they have done some pretty brave things, that will make a difference for us all, the Libs are only about the rich & powerful, never forget that.I agree never run up stairs (or Down) & NEVER vote Liberal!!!!!
[...] Read Matthew’s take on the hysteria and deception around polls this election year. [...]
Kangxi
http://polling.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/130202%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings.pdf
The Coalition is up nearly 6% nationally since the 2010 election (not sure where you get you info from)and the ALP are around the low 30′s in all polls lately.
Labor was at 38% in the 2010 election ….. the experts are saying that the draw mark this time could be as high as 40% ALP primary.
Also this is a national average and to where it counts (say like WA marginals ) it was much higher. Also in Western Sydney they predict it to be much more than 6%, they are suggesting seats with margins around 7-8% are in danger.
One quirky factor that has been puzzling me is that the greens seem to do better at the national polls then they do in real state elections. This suggests to me the green voters are in high density clumps, when you look at the bigger picture across a whole state the results look worse. This could be caused by lack of regional polling or questionable polling in regional areas where people are less likely to vote greens.
Most are taking their eye off QLD, Rudd holds the biggest margin at 8.1% …. after that its 4% or less, they predict Swanny will be gone.
Politics is a numbers game, the polls really don’t show any good news for the ALP.
Gillard has to pull off a hail-mary while Abbott does something really stupid at the same time for her to be PM after September 2013.
MarilynS
Who said they were socially progressive ?
I am sure there are many unemployed single mums out there that completely disagree with that notion.
They are just desperate to stay in power, to do so they need to appeal to the broader community, not just the one eyed rusted on ALP types that seem in plague proportions here.
One example of a single issue that has smashed them out of the park is border security, this might lose them the election on its own. In Sydney’s west you have large migrant enclaves that entered this country through the front doors…….. they get pissed of when illegals land on our soil and they blame the ALP for letting this get out of control ……. how did they act ? By going back to Howard lite mode that won the election under Rudd.
The party is saying and doing things they just don’t believe in but their spin doctors tell them this stuff. If you don’t really believe in something you will only do a half baked job of it.
Yay!! I just receive my ALP membership card! The party will not die as long as the likes of cornlegend and I are still above ground!
typo – lack of d.
I am a Member of the ALP and would never vote for the Libs, yet the ALP is not a Party for its Members. Members have no say in it anymore. NSW is a good ex-sample of Members walking out because of the rot in it. Branch-stacking is getting out of hand with Branch Meetings struggling to get a quorum. Yet on Party elections you need a Bus to bring all those so called Members to the Booth.75 to 80% of Members are Pensioners or Unemployed by the Books. That is in Victoria and Party Headoffice keeps very quite about this.