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With Newspoll showing Labor back on level ground, Bob Ellis considers why it all went so wrong for the Liberal Party so quickly.
NEWSPOLL SHOWS Labor’s base vote back where it was, 38, when it won a negotiated victory in 2010.
It is likely 4 per cent of the ‘Other’ vote is for the Katter Party in Queensland, whose Newman-hating preferences will probably drift to Labor, putting it on 50 or 51 two-party preferred. With an adequate campaign, this means Labor would win outright in August or November, after it is shown Abbott’s figures do not add up.
Its numbers will improve when the honest poll, Nielsen, comes out in two weeks and shows Labor on 51.
Why did it go so wrong for the Liberals so quickly? They cannot now win in Victoria or South Australia, and Labor has to be in with a chance in Queensland, where Newman sacked firefighters in time for this most dangerous summer of all. But why did it go so bad for them federally?
It’s because, I think, they no longer have secrecy on their side.
For most of their history, they could hide their incompetence under big lies: that China would soon invade us; that this could be avoided if we beat back the ‘Communist menace’ in Vietnam; that Afghanistan should be invaded because Bin Laden lived in a cave there; that Iraq should be bombed flat because big bombs were being built there; that boat people were the Taliban in disguise with kidnapped children they threw overboard; that Hicks, Haneef and Habib were terrorists; that the GST and WorkChoices were dead and buried; that Wayne Swan was ‘the most incompetent Treasurer in our history’; that Campbell Newman had no intention of sacking thirty thousand public servants; that global warming was ‘bullshit’; that Thomson was a whoremonger and Slipper a kind of rapist of men; and so on.
For now, in the age of Assange and the social media, it’s no longer possible, or it’s very hard, to prevail by spin, fudged facts and big lies any more. No-one anymore believes Hockey can add, or Abbott knows what he’s doing, or Newman cares what happens to ordinary people, or O’Farrell is not the fond friend of racketeers and gun fiends. The jig is up, their cover is blown, and they can’t get the kindly-koala mask back on, and the sneering-jackal is showing. Their situation will get worse in the coming months, as the Slipper caper and the Thomson frame are revealed, and Hockey is obliged to say which eighty billion he will cut from whom.
It’s what happened to Romney in October.
He had to say why less money for disaster relief was a good idea, and he couldn’t. He had to say why he ‘loved sacking people’ and why 47 per cent didn’t deserve any money, and he couldn’t. He was shown saying unacceptable things by the new technology. He was shown up for what he was.
And Abbott has to show, after the hottest day in our history, why global warming is bullshit. Campbell Newman has to show why sacking nurses and bushfire-fighters helps anyone. They’ve been smoked out, and there’s nowhere for them to hide — no sheltering lie to cower under, any more.
If there’s one thing above all other things that has done for them, it’s their nastiness.
The hounding of Haneef and Hicks and Kirby and Kernot and Thomson and Slipper, the immoderacy of their baiting of Gillard – ‘deliberately barren’, ‘she should die of shame’ – show private school bullies in hot pursuit of the new little kid in the dorm: push his head down the toilet, there’s the go. They’ve tried on the ‘character issue’ and it’s exploded, like a shit-bomb, over them. Who would you rather have to dinner in your house, Pyne or Craig Thomson? If the answer is Craig Thomson, they’re in big, big, trouble.
Or, to put it another way, who would you rather send to help sort out the Middle East, Bob Carr or Julie Bishop? You see the difficulty they’re in. The truth has caught up with them, and, for the first time in their sixty-nine year history, they’re cowering and cringing in its flashlight.
And there’s nowhere for them to hide any more, and lie, and bluster, and wriggle.
And the adventure, probably, is over.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License
34 Comments
“Who would you rather have to dinner in your house, Pyne or Craig Thomson?”
Both! To try to understand people who crave to revolve around in what would now be the nastiest profession in the world behind Banking.
“Who would you rather send to help sort out the Middle East, Bob Carr or Julie Bishop?”
Both! With people like that who care so little for others that they don’t know or care about, hopefully a Sniper bullet getting them whilst there, would save all a lot of pain and angst. Nasty I know, but no less mercy for them, than they feel for us is fair.
Here is a summary found on the Morgan Poll website for December 2012:
In mid December support for the ALP is 52.5% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, December 8/9 & 15/16, 2012.
Newspoll has now announced a six-point bounce in the government’s primary vote but differs with the Morgan Poll and gives the Opposition a slight lead on a two-party preferred basis, 51 to 49 per cent.
Still, not good news for the Coalition.
Dennis Shanahan must be having an apoplectic fit.
What a good Article Bob,
Short and to the point. Once again a Journalist who is prepared to say what most people are beginning to think (or thinking already).
The only thing that will deliver the treasury benches to Abbott is the Main Stream Media.
When you look at the last two years, the Liberals have gone hammer and tong against labor, telling all sorts of Lies and distorting facts. It started with the “We got more votes” lies and went onto the Thompson, Slipper and AWU scams. With some of the nastiest people in Australia peddling the lies, aided and abetted with a partisan and arguably criminal press (Murdoch)and a cowardly bunch elsewhere concerned about their jobs rather than the truth in the news.
The worst Press in the world I think.
One of the poorest performers has been the Australian Broadcasting Commission, our beloved ABC. Beloved by many no longer. populated in the Howard years with partisan management and board and now culling the impartial journalists, ignoring the reality of News and hiding behind a sham excuse that there is a 24 hour News Cycle.
Like the clock on Abbott’s Pc’s in his office which is 10 hours behind, The ABC have sat on stories for 12 hours before they have mentioned them. A recent example was the PM’s News conference at Woodford, where her address was cut to 4.3 something minutes and Malcolm Turnbull’s was put up there almost immediately and included the worst 11 minutes of Political Hubris and grandstanding I have ever seen.
But friends you haven’t seen anything yet. The Liberals are ramping up for the next round. Don’t think they have been beaten. They have not been. Sure they have no where to go, but to tell more lies. Lies like the Insulation scheme killed 4 people in Queensland. That the School halls were a rort. The reality is that those programs energised the nation and in 2010 created 534,500 jobs, which is verifiable on the ABS website.
It was ALP policy which saved this nation from a recession. A recession we would have had under the likes of Hockey and Abbott and Pyne.
The Liberals have put in a four plus effort to try and unseat the government, but they have failed.
They have failed Thank goodness because of the Internet and Journals like Independent Australia.
Pyne’s and Joyce’s lies about more votes can be checked out and exposed, The Lies about Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper can be exposed (and have been). The bullshit that Eric Abetz and George Brandis sprouted was exposed right here on IA (in an SMH article written by Paul Sheehan and commented on by Vince O’Grady).
The fight isn’t won yet but I have confidence it will be.
Lets not forget the IMF’s latest report that Howard engaged in profligate, PRoFLIGATE spending. The mistakes and economic mismanagement of the Howard era, the lies of Abbots time and the downright dirty underhand tactics of Bishop and her cronies have all culminated to paint a picture of a party that doesn’t have a friggin clue.
Superb Article Bob.
I hope more and more people wake up soon to what the Liberals
really are. abbott has put them in the gutter where he always seems to be. I wait patiently on Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper being cleared of everything and the Liberals are accused of being involved of EVERYTHING.
I would invite Mr Pyne. But I need to confess that my motivation would be far from pure, and the outcome would be quite newsworthy.
Tinfoilhatter, that’s gold. I’d add that I’d also invite Hannibal Lecter & lock them in the dining room together….
I can’t wait until Q&A and Insiders start up again on the ABC. Barrie Cassidy has already agreed with Waleed Aly that Ashbygate was the scandal of 2012, and he is sure to push it this year.
As soon as any Lib dares to attack Gillard or Labor this year, Labor pollies only have to point to Ashbygate to deflate the Libs’ attack.
@ Silkworm
They will just deny it 3 times and it would have never happened. See, magic can happen. So can a full frontal lobotomy, which it seems is a fashion thing in the Coalition at the moment.
Bob, nice one.
Cheers
but where are the headlines..”if an election were held today…”?
Last night I had one of those dreams.You know the type.I found myself in bed with Mirranda Kerr or what I initially thought was Miranda Kerr.Anyhow I quickly came to the realization that it in fact was not Miranda Kerr but much to my horror Miranda Devine.Quickly analysing my dire predicament I lept over the edge of the bed,much as a Lemming would throw itself off a cliff for the greater good of its species.Scurrying to my feet I was met with a sight that is still causing flashbacks.There was Tony Abbott dressed in a full French maid’s uniform….grinning.My horror intensifying I made a break for the door only to find Christopher Pyne dressed in a Wilfred type suit and Joe Hockey dressed up as Tweedledum blocking my way.Fearing the worst I ran to the window only to be confronted by an apirition on the other side that looked like Julie Bishop (it may also have been Mykala Cash or Miss Marple) saying “your home now your home now”Its at that point I awoke.Any way my question is…….is this normal?
I won’t be able to share Bob’s optimism until I see reliable polls showing that more people get their political information from IA and similar outlets than from the MSM.
You’re spot on Bob.
The LNP & the individuals within it are nasty, liars, bullies & therefore cowards. They also have no talent or modern equitable policies. Abbott despite his cheerleading propagandist MSM/ABC, is so demonstrably nasty & repulsive that voters don’t want a bar of him.
I would not however count our chickens before hatching. It’s a long time till November, alot can happen & the LNP, the elites & media will throw everything at their disposal to get Abbott elected.
I bloody well hope you are correct & the electorates’ adventure & support for Abbott is over though Bob!
Oh man Socialist Capitalist, that is some fucking nightmare!!!
The only thing that could have been worse is that the wholly charming & attractive Sophie Mirabella had in fact snuk into your bed during the night & was waiting for you in bed with lovin’ in mind when you woke. That truly would have been a gigantic nightmare nightmare!!!
Just makes you shiver then cry in fear & terror doesn’t it?
Mate I’d guess your dream is not normal. But what the fuck would I know? Seeing as though we have Abbott & his freaks in a gruesome real life nightmare, no way in hell can anyone tell me that is normal either!!!!
Still plenty of doubting Thomas around. Obviously the public at large will take time to come to grips with the 5th estate, where they can be found. The arrival of The Independent from UK will help hugely. Social media is now well established. re tweeting for example has the potential of just one post reaching tens of thousands. We will never defeat this lying, deceiving, muck raking LNP led by an abominable person unless we are united in our determination to spread the word about the magnificent achievements of Julia Gillard’s Labor Govt.
That means up off the couch, the chair in front of the computer, joining your local Labor Party branch regardless if you consider your candidate can win. Success will come with a mass of numbers across the board.push the agenda at every opportunity. Success is at hand we need to grasp it. The alternative is too ugly to consider.
Great article Bob, you are inspiring.
Thanks Bob…good medicine but yep there’ll be a lot of dirty tricks this year…you’d remember tricky dicky nixon…this’ll be even more dirty… tricky Tone?.. ‘Cause surely after getting away with conspiracy & sedition already, they’ll be going even more deeply macho villain/Machiavellion? Fantastic end video i hadn’t seen before…most laughs for ages…if one picture’s worth a thousand words, this one has to be worth 100,000,000?? So productively creative like a medieval court jester.
Thanks Bob, well done and all the commentariat***** from the +1 cheer squad.
David, will take your advice; I get regular updates from George Wright but am yet to join the labor party. I will do this in the next couple of months. Have an arch conservative husband who is not impressed with my choice of activities. Have yet to donate to IA, but will do so. Also, am in hocjey’s electorate. See him around the traps and give Fat Bastard the biggest greasies!
Bob Ellis, I hope your predictions are right; Abbott is such a nasty piece of work. How can he profess to be a good, caring Christian (catholic) and just be such a fucking awful human being? I wonder if “Margie” went to Peter and Inge’s wedding. What does she think of this total betrayal of a “friend”? What does Margaret think when she sees the destruction of Craiig Thomson’s career and the havoc wreaked on his family? I wonder what she thinks of her husband’s directive NOT to grant Thomson a pair (although later revoked) for the birth of his baby? I wonder if she has any thoughts on “her husband’s” pursuit to gaol of Pauline Hanson. I wonder what she thinks of his role in the destruction of The democrats in WA. Hmm … Means to a end! Who else will Abbott wheel out to show his soft side. Gonna be difficult because there’s not one. Abbott reminds me of Savonarola (Medici-era Dominican priest who practiced mortification). Although, with his frequent outings on the beach in his Speedos, there appears to be no evidence of self-mortification. Extreme exercise seems a convenient substitute.
Well done Bob!
What a great collection of comments. Makes me think that there is light at the end of the coalition tunnel. Particularly like the humour -Socialist capitalist and Rastus. Couldn’t say it better than Cracker. – Just a thought – how would you like to be a teacher of Christopher Pyne? What a nightmare he must have been in high school. – If anyone knows any of those unfortunates, I suggest they write a letter to IA for revenge . Cheers folks.
What a great surprise to hear that the Guardian is coming to Australia, I had two comments published in the Guardian last week to do with the Australian fires, comment from someone else saying that Australia was behind in global warming and that they should do more as they are they are the biggest culprits , then comments from two Australians said that Julia Gillard was going to be voted out in the next election and they couldn’t wait, That got me going , I logged in to the Guardian and went for them and told them to look up IA ,they might just find the truth about their Idiot Abbott, how he is a denier in climate change and Global warming ,I also said by reading Independent Australia.net they might just learn the truth and then pass it on to their mates who were also Abbott’s followers, My husband will be so pleased the Guardian is coming , two great papers to read now.IA and the Guardian. The courier mail never publishes my comments if it’s about the LNP. The polls were good news this week just hope that Julia is on the ball keeping this up . I will still comment in the guardian when i see anything that will be of interest to the UK what Tony Abbott is up to and that he was only recently in London to pick Cameron’s brains because he himself hasn’t got one, there are lots of Aussies in the UK and i still have family there. I hope you can understand this as it is now 1-20am , couldn’t stop my excitement when i read about the guardian. Keep up the good work.
Yes the ALP are marginally better than the liberals and the liberals don’t deserve to win a chook raffle but Gillard and Rocksoff are now deliberately torturing human beings to get the rancind one nation vote – a new born faces prison for life under a law Gillard and Rocksoff voted against.
AFTER two long years of waiting, Mokhtar Amini’s family were finally to get their chance at Australian residency with a scheduled appointment today in Islamabad for the family reunion visa the Melbourne-based Hazara student first sought in 2010.
Instead his mother, father and sister are in mourning in Quetta, Pakistan, after his two younger brothers Rahmad and Ahad were killed in the massive blast last Thursday that claimed 92 lives in the Hazara enclave of Alamdar Road. Rahmad was buried on Monday. Ahad’s body has not been found.
Like at least 15 others unaccounted for, who were known to be in the Star Snooker Hall that night, the family believes Ahad was just too close to the bomb.
“My family have been waiting two years to get here but now they can’t go (to their interview) and I don’t know what will happen next,” Mokhtar, a 19-year-old automotive mechanic TAFE student, said yesterday.
Across the country, Australia’s Hazara community is counting the cost of the deadliest single attack in Pakistan’s history on the Afghan ethnic minority.
From his bedroom in a community detention centre in Marsfield, Sydney, Bashir Ahmad had been chatting on Skype with his older brother and cousin last Thursday when they hurriedly ended the call to investigate a blast near their home. The 23-year-old asylum-seeker from Quetta, who is awaiting his protection visa, tried frantically over coming hours to contact his brother. Finally his uncle confirmed his worst fears.
Both men were killed by a secondary bomb concealed in a stolen ambulance at the scene.
Bashir’s brother Nasir was buried on Monday but the family could only find pieces of his cousin Mohammad Hashim.
At least one Australian resident is also known to have died in the blast. Brisbane factory worker Ehsan Haidari had been visiting his wife of five months –who was still awaiting assessment of her visa application — and his family in Quetta when he was believed to have been caught in the secondary blast.
Mohammad Musa, a government interpreter and former flatmate of Haidari in Brisbane, said he received confirmation of his friend’s death from a list compiled by the Hazara community in Quetta as well as from his own family, who Haidari had visited the morning of the bombing.
However, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade insisted yesterday it still had no information about Australian residents or citizens killed in the blast and was continuing to seek details.
In the wake of the attack Hazara community leaders and refugee advocates have called for a “compassionate response” from Canberra, including an emergency evacuation of relatives of Australian-based Hazaras still in Quetta awaiting assessment of their family reunion visa applications.
++++++++++A spokesman for Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said yesterday there would be no change in policy as a result of the latest carnage in Quetta.++++++++++ DON’T WE ALL JUST LOVE BOWEN’S COMPASSION FOR THE VICTIMS OF GENOCIDE?
OUT OF 4 MILLION AFGHAN REFUGEES WE WILL ACCEPT A FEW THOUSAND AND JAIL THE OTHER FEW THOUSAND WHO DARE TO SEEK ASYLUM HERE.
“The government has already announced the significant increase to 20,000 places of Australia’s refugee intake — including taking thousands of Afghan refugees out of the Middle East and surrounding countries, including Pakistan,” the spokesman said.
A significant number of Afghans granted visas are believed to be ethnic Hazaras.
Why do we endlessy have these cruel cowards thinking our ridiculous little policy of accepting a measly number of refugees as migrants is so sacred that not even genocide will stop it.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-refugee-deathtrap/518/
And we are helping the Pakistan ISI to kill these people in the first place.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/australias-deadly-game/519/
And then we have the lovely Rocksoff telling us that Ranjini and her newborn Tamil son are such a threat to us that they must stay jailed without charge until they die.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/birth-behind-bars-for-asio-risk-20130115-2crww.html
And the crueller and more vicious we get to them the louder the racists cheer.
Great article, below is an extract from a letter that I sent to the local paper which may or may not get published after a typical rant about the worst government yet by Senator John Williams (who got elected with less than 1000 votes). Of particular interest to me is the third paragraph which looks at trending over the last thirty years.It would seem that with my local paper that if you write to them they will publish it on most occasions and I regularly get congratulated by locals. I stuggle to imagine that reaction multiplied expontially with electronic social media.
“Senator Williams, Inverell Times letters Friday, January 11, 2013 brings out some tired old chestnuts from the LNP propaganda chest once again. He accuses Tony Windsor of a smear campaign and personal attacks against Richard Torbay. Late last year Tony Windsor made it known that he had no respect for Richard Torbay. Earlier in the year Richard Torbay claimed that Tony Windsor had damaged the independent brand and no doubt the debate will go on between the two of them until the next election. Hardly a smear campaign, more like two politicians trying to get the best position for themselves coming up to an election. Senator Williams response seems to be a typical LNP strategy of exaggerating a negative point hoping that at least some of it will be believed.
The other worn out catch cry ‘the worst government ever inflicted on this nation’ reeks of copy and paste from an LNP propaganda script. A few of the things that this government has done are: abolished WorkChoices, increased hospital spending by 50%, delivered the biggest increase to the single age pension in 100 years, got us through the GFC, established a single national school curriculum, invested $2.3 billion in the fight against cancer, NBN, a carbon price to help mitigate global warming, National Disability Insurance Scheme, tax cuts in the last three budgets, record investment in renewable energy to combat the rise in electricity prices and CO2 emissions, a Royal Commission into child sex abuse etc etc. According to current polling about 50% of the nation think that this effort is good enough to vote for.
Senator Williams may be better served by considering his own future, if he had to compete for a seat in the house of Reps he might find it a lot more uncomfortable than being parachuted into a safe Senate spot. Some data to help. From 1980 Labor has averaged 70.6 seats in the house of reps, Liberals 56.5, the Nationals 15.6, Independents 2.6 and the Greens gained 1 seat in 2010.In the 12 elections during that period Labor got the most seats except for 4 occasions 1980, 1996, 2001 and 2004 when the Liberals got the most. Trending shows Labors fortunes increasing slightly from it’s lowest point in 1996 while the Liberals are in gradual decline from an all time high at that point despite a spike in 2004.The Nationals are in gradual decline from 1980 with the Independents trending fairly neutral. The Greens got their first seat in 2010 so who knows where they are going.
A possible outcome considering this is a string of coalition governments formed by Labor, the Independents and Greens with the LNP numbers continuing to gradually decline as they have done for some time now.”
Kindest regards
Dear Marilyn, I think that the major parties successfully harvest racisim in groups far beyond the confines of One Nation.
Kindest regards
Given the alternative that the LNP offers then even Jack the Ripper would have to be considered a viable alternative. At least Jack was public and up front about his atrocities unlike the LNP which try to hide behind a (thankfully) increasingly transparent mask.
However, if the ALP do win then all that will do for them is to hide the increasingly yawning cracks that are appearing within their own organisation. Cracks such as
1. Lack of compassion, there being so many examples that it is pointless to list them all (from refugees to Assange etc etc)
2. A moribund business model which involves strict central control leading to the nomination of some truly inept and at times corrupt people to government (Sussex St anyone?). In addition a lack of democracy within its structures that means that the branches are irrelevant and that no one wishes to join them as a consequence.
3. A reliance on lawyers within its ranks which means a genuine cross section of society is not represented. To my mind this would mean that a person like Curtin would no longer get a look in, much to the detriment of us all.
However, even with these failings they leave the other mob for dead when it comes to ability. The Opposition are just too appalling for words.
Ruby, I was outraged some months back when at the checkout of one of Inverell’s large old family stores there was a petition from the Senator you mention, using the same wording you mention, calling for an election now to bring down the Elected Government. Locally the Federal Govt through the BER has built at Ross Hill School, Six new classrooms a double storey block with covered walkways, Inverell Public four new classrooms replacing old building, Tingha School much needed Hall Community building connected to covered area, Ashford historical Hall refurbished for School and Community and much more not mentioned. Scuttles the lies and his negative claims contrasting sharply to the positive benefits this electorate has received.
The MSM is unfortunately the dominant propaganda tool here. A friend teacher explaining to a parent the savage State cuts to funding, directly affecting her child was left sadly pondering when the parents reply was ” it’s the Govt giving jobs and welfare money to the boat people ” . Lets hope Ruby that IA spreads to the country people they need it!.
PS..Love the Stunt Man clip so funny!!..
MarylinS, that story is so sad.
Gazza, I keep hearing similar stuff. My response is “do you know any refugees?”. The answer is of course “no”. To which my response is “Well, how do you know what their situation is?”.
Gazza, I read that the Guardian UK is going to launch an Australian edition which may complimant IA which may bring attention to media other than the MSM.
Bob,
The LNP mongrels have not been on holiday they have been scheming. The only way they can win is by dishonest means hence todays continuing reportage in The Australian regarding the Coalitions desperate attempts to discredit our Prime Minister regarding the AWU. I want to know how our police can be so easily manipulated to chase LNP red herrings and false charges when there are so many more important cases to be solved. Its a disgrace.
I noticed that Campbell Newman thinks that the Qld voters have already started to forget his mass sackings and sales of state assets, the good old Courier Mail like the seventh cavalry coming to his rescue had him on the front page pleading to let him govern,I cannot really come to grips as to why the media backs this ruthless spin doctor, just have a good look at the front bench of Abbotts opposition the biggest bunch of liars and cheats that ever massed together,the lovely Julie Bishop dont forget the painted up old tart Bronwyn Bishop, Joe the used car salesman Hockey and Christopher Pyne,if these extreme rightwing conservatives defeat Julia Gillard then the people that put them in deserve everthing they get.
@ Tony.
Big Media/Business see larger profits with Tony with less hassle for doing what they want to do. That is why they will do, say and buy whatever they have to, to have the carté blanche of power bestowed upon him. He is their glove puppet. Guess where the hand goes!
More and more people are realizing that the lies vs reality of the Liberal party and the media that serves them. Three cheers for truth.
Pyne or Craig Thomson
Bob Carr or Julie Bishop
yes, i do see the difficulty we’re in.
and may god have mercy on us all.